The semiconductor crisis of 2021 to 2023 exposed a vulnerability that many industrial SMEs had overlooked: dependence on components whose availability can evaporate overnight. Microcontrollers, FPGAs, DC/DC converters — references that had been used for years suddenly faced 18-month lead times or became entirely unavailable. Here is how to anticipate the problem and build a resilient supply chain.
Background: what the 2021-2023 shortages changed
Between 2021 and 2023, the combination of explosive demand (post-COVID recovery, electric vehicle boom, 5G rollout) and insufficient production capacity created unprecedented pressure on the semiconductor market. Supply lead times that were normally under 12 weeks climbed to 52, 65, or even 80 weeks for certain references.
The consequences for manufacturers were immediate: production lines at a standstill, delayed deliveries, margins sacrificed to buy on the spot market. Industrial SMEs, which generally have neither large buffer stocks nor direct relationships with semiconductor manufacturers, were among the hardest hit.
How to detect obsolescence before it costs you
Distributor lifecycle alerts
Major distributors (Mouser, DigiKey, Farnell, RS Components) offer lifecycle alerts on watchlisted references. These alerts flag NRND (Not Recommended for New Design) notifications, EOL (End of Life) announcements, and PCN (Product Change Notice) notices issued by manufacturers.
Subscribing to these alerts for all critical references in your BOM is the first line of defence. It is free, automated, and can give you 12 to 24 months of advance warning on a supply problem.
EOLM (End-of-Life Management) analysis
EOLM is a structured approach to analysing the lifecycle of each critical component. It involves regularly evaluating for each reference:
- The lifecycle status declared by the manufacturer (Active, NRND, Obsolete)
- The age of the component (a component introduced in 2008 is statistically more at risk)
- Stock available from authorised distributors (low stock across all platforms is a warning signal)
- Whether or not a qualified second source exists
Strategies to secure your production
Targeted safety stock
Building a safety stock does not mean tying up capital on every component. The rational approach is to identify high-risk components (advanced lifecycle stage, single-source, long lead time) and build a buffer stock proportional to your production rate.
For a board assembled 200 times per year with a microcontroller on a 52-week lead time, a stock of 12 to 18 months of forecast consumption is reasonable. For a standard passive component available in 2 weeks, no stock is needed.
Systematic second sourcing
Defining a second source for each critical component is a best practice that must be integrated from the design phase. This means identifying a component from a different manufacturer — pin-compatible or a functional equivalent — that can replace the primary component without modifying the PCB.
This qualification cannot be improvised after an EOL announcement. It requires a technical compatibility analysis, often qualification testing, and integration into the BOM and technical documentation. Planning this work upfront drastically reduces the risk and cost of an emergency switchover.
Preventive redesign
Sometimes the best solution is to proactively plan a board redesign to replace an end-of-life component with a modern alternative. A preventive redesign, carried out calmly with several months of lead time, costs two to five times less than an emergency redesign forced by a sudden stockout.
This redesign is also an opportunity to improve performance, reduce component count, or integrate functions that previously required several separate components. A forced redesign becomes a product improvement opportunity.
Codium's role in component monitoring
For our clients in regular production, Codium provides continuous component monitoring on the BOMs we manage. This monitoring covers several dimensions:
- Lifecycle alert monitoring on all critical references, with immediate notification to the client upon any NRND or EOL announcement.
- Second source qualification in collaboration with our design office, with technical validation before integration into the official BOM.
- Buffer stock management for at-risk components, with a FIFO (First In, First Out) consumption policy to prevent stock ageing.
- Preventive redesign advisory: we alert our clients as soon as a component on their board enters the NRND phase, with a cost estimate for the redesign.
This approach allows our clients to focus on their core business, while delegating supply chain monitoring to a specialist team that knows their products in depth.
Would you like to audit the robustness of your BOM or set up component monitoring for your boards in production? Contact our team.